Decarbonisation of the electricity grid — new zealand (location-based)
New Zealand is committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 [MBIE]. A critical driver of this target is the official ambition to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2030, scaling up from roughly 90% today, while simultaneously expanding capacity to meet a projected 60% growth in electricity demand by 2050. MBIE's Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS 2024) modelled five different economic scenarios out to 2050. They forecast that the renewable share of generation will grow from roughly 90% today to between 96.2% and 98.3% by 2050. Crucially, MBIE concluded that to manage winter peaks and dry-year risks, "new gas peakers are required to provide firming in all scenarios." This implies the emission factor will drop significantly but will not hit an absolute mathematical zero.
- Category
- Utilities
- Geography
- new zealand
- Basis
- location-based
- Unit
- kgCO2e / kWh
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: nz-all
Also applies to: Companyvehicle Car Bev, Companyvehicle Hgv Bev, Companyvehicle Van Bev, Commuting Car Bev, Commuting Motorbike Bev
Official targets aim for a 100% renewable grid by 2030, which would reduce the emission factor to near zero. In contrast, projecting historical emission reductions (IEA) yields a much slower transition, projecting a drop to only ~32.4 by 2030 due to challenges like "dry-year" hydro risks and the ongoing need for thermal backup generation.
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -1.7% | -19.3% | -20.1% |
| 2026 | -3.0% | -22.3% | -22.3% |
| 2027 | -4.4% | -25.9% | -27.3% |
| 2028 | -5.8% | -28.0% | -28.9% |
| 2029 | -7.2% | -33.0% | -33.3% |
| 2030 | -8.5% | -38.6% | -38.8% |
| 2031 | -9.9% | -40.2% | -41.5% |
| 2032 | -11.3% | -50.7% | -63.2% |
| 2033 | -12.7% | -52.5% | -65.9% |
| 2034 | -14.0% | -52.5% | -66.5% |
| 2035 | -15.4% | -53.1% | -68.5% |
| 2036 | -16.8% | -53.5% | -69.4% |
| 2037 | -18.2% | -57.8% | -70.1% |
| 2038 | -19.5% | -58.5% | -70.6% |
| 2039 | -20.9% | -58.7% | -70.2% |
| 2040 | -22.3% | -59.2% | -70.1% |
| 2041 | -23.7% | -59.2% | -70.0% |
| 2042 | -25.0% | -59.6% | -70.5% |
| 2043 | -26.4% | -59.9% | -70.9% |
| 2044 | -27.8% | -60.2% | -70.9% |
| 2045 | -29.2% | -60.4% | -71.2% |
| 2046 | -30.5% | -60.7% | -71.3% |
| 2047 | -31.9% | -60.9% | -71.4% |
| 2048 | -33.3% | -61.1% | -71.7% |
| 2049 | -34.7% | -61.2% | -71.8% |
| 2050 | -36.0% | -61.7% | -72.0% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Weighted projection between sources
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MBIE_aspirational
This scenario assumes full capital deployment and successful execution of the official ambition to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2030. |
MBIE
Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment |
forecast | very_ambitious | 2.2850736471922244 |
|
IEA_Historic
This scenario follows the historical trajectory (extrapolating the IEA 2018-2024 trend) and assumes that systemic constraints prevent a rapid transition to 100% renewables. |
IEA
The International Energy Agency (IEA) works with governments and industry to shape a secure and sustainable energy future for all |
historic | base | 1.3512498725672673 |
|
EDGS_Constraint
The Constraint scenario models slower economic growth which leads to lower energy demand growth. This scenario is essentially the inverse of the Growth scenario. We assume that adverse international trends negatively impact New Zealand’s economy, leaving little room for local growth or innovation. Lower income growth means lower uptake of technology such as EVs. At the same time, decreased international activity and slower technological development results in higher costs for wind turbines and solar panels than in the Reference scenario. |
MBIE EDGS 2024 - Constraint
MBIE prepares an independent set of scenarios called the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) that explore potential future electricity demand and the generation capacity required to meet that demand. |
forecast | moderate | 1 |
|
EDGS_Environmental
More ambitious national emissions reduction targets are set than in the Reference scenario. Technology is more readily available due to regulation, incentives, or other measures. Initiatives are introduced to support both transport and process heat switching to lower emissions alternatives. Carbon prices are significantly higher, in line with government projections. |
MBIE EDGS 2024 - Environmental
MBIE prepares an independent set of scenarios called the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) that explore potential future electricity demand and the generation capacity required to meet that demand. |
forecast | ambitious | 1 |
|
EDGS_Growth
The Growth scenario models accelerated economic growth and corresponding increased demands on the energy system relative to the Reference scenario. The Growth scenario indicates what electricity demand could look like if the economy is growing quickly, but we are not investing in electrification at greater rates. We assume that New Zealand experiences both higher economic growth and increased immigration, while policy and investment are focused on priorities other than the energy sector. The economy transforms to emphasise high technology (resulting in an increased share of the commercial sector), while higher income growth and personal wealth drive higher uptake of new technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs). Carbon costs are lower. |
MBIE EDGS 2024 - Growth
MBIE prepares an independent set of scenarios called the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) that explore potential future electricity demand and the generation capacity required to meet that demand. |
forecast | moderate | 1 |
|
EDGS_Innovation
The Growth scenario models accelerated economic growth and corresponding increased demands on the energy system relative to the Reference scenario. The Growth scenario indicates what electricity demand could look like if the economy is growing quickly, but we are not investing in electrification at greater rates. We assume that New Zealand experiences both higher economic growth and increased immigration, while policy and investment are focused on priorities other than the energy sector. The economy transforms to emphasise high technology (resulting in an increased share of the commercial sector), while higher income growth and personal wealth drive higher uptake of new technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs). Carbon costs are lower. |
MBIE EDGS 2024 - Innovation
MBIE prepares an independent set of scenarios called the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) that explore potential future electricity demand and the generation capacity required to meet that demand. |
forecast | ambitious | 1 |
|
EDGS_Reference
The Reference scenario is our baseline scenario and considers both current trends and anticipated changes. It is the scenario against which the other scenarios are compared. We assume that economic, technological, and policy trends continue at the pace experienced in recent years. We account for currently implemented and upcoming policies and assume further electrification uptake. |
MBIE EDGS 2024 - Reference
MBIE prepares an independent set of scenarios called the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) that explore potential future electricity demand and the generation capacity required to meet that demand. |
forecast | base | 1 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source1 from MBIE (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=2.596702859842573.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 1 source(s).
- — Refreshed quality.recency and pedigree_score from publication years (as-of 2026). VP mid weights affected for: source1.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source2 from IEA (historic) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.7579505932823387.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 2 source(s).
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source3 from MBIE EDGS 2024 - Constraint (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 3 source(s).
- — Refreshed quality.recency and pedigree_score from publication years (as-of 2024). VP mid weights affected for: source1, source2.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source4 from MBIE EDGS 2024 - Environmental (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 4 source(s).
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source5 from MBIE EDGS 2024 - Growth (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 5 source(s).
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source6 from MBIE EDGS 2024 - Innovation (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 6 source(s).
- — Updated source5 from MBIE EDGS 2024 - Growth (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 6 source(s).
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source7 from MBIE EDGS 2024 - Reference (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
- — Recomputed vpmid mid as pedigree-weighted blend of 7 source(s).
Frequently asked questions
What is driving decarbonisation of the electricity grid decarbonisation in new zealand?
New Zealand is committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 [MBIE]. A critical driver of this target is the official ambition to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2030, scaling up from roughly 90% today, while simultaneously expanding capacity to meet a projected 60% growth in electricity demand by 2050. MBIE's Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS 2024) modelled five different economic scenarios out to 2050. They forecast that the renewable share of generation will grow from roughly 90% today to between 96.2% and 98.3% by 2050. Crucially, MBIE concluded that to manage winter peaks and dry-year risks, "new gas peakers are required to provide firming in all scenarios." This implies the emission factor will drop significantly but will not hit an absolute mathematical zero.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor Weighted projection between sources
What range of outcomes does this trend cover?
Official targets aim for a 100% renewable grid by 2030, which would reduce the emission factor to near zero. In contrast, projecting historical emission reductions (IEA) yields a much slower transition, projecting a drop to only ~32.4 by 2030 due to challenges like "dry-year" hydro risks and the ongoing need for thermal backup generation.
Discussion
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